Summer Joint Research Workshop on Reliability: Theory and Practice

日時:2017年8月5日(土) 14:00





・Research Center for Energy Integrity Systems in Tokyo Metropolitan University and Special Interest Group on Reliability of the Operations Research Society of Japan (co-organized)

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Title: Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice
Speaker: Dr. Kishor S. Trivedi, Duke University, North Carolina, USA
High reliability and availability is a requirement for most technical systems. Reliability and availability assurance methods based on probabilistic models is the topic being addressed in this seminar. Non-state-space solution methods are often used to solve models based on reliability block diagrams, fault trees and reliability graphs. Relatively efficient algorithms are known to handle systems with hundreds of components and have been implemented in many software packages. Nevertheless, many practical problems cannot be handled by such algorithms. Bounding algorithms are then used in such cases as was done for a major subsystem of Boeing 787. Non-state-space methods derive their efficiency from the independence assumption that is often violated in practice. State space methods based on Markov chains, stochastic Petri nets, semi-Markov and Markov regenerative processes can be used to model various kinds of dependencies among system components. However, the resulting state space explosion severely restricts the size of the problem that can be solved. Hierarchical and fixed-point iterative methods provide a scalable alternative that combines the strengths of state space and non-state-space methods and have been extensively used to solve real-life problems. We will take a journey through these model types via interesting real-world examples.




Title: Detection Method of Impassable Roads for Efficient Tsunami Evacuation Guidance
Speaker: Dr. Raito Matsuzaki (Tokyo Metropolitan University)
In recently, earthquake disasters are frequent, and many people die or go missing when a tsunami strikes after the earthquake. Therefore, we need to evacuate quickly to an elevated position for reducing damage. In our research, we propose the tsunami evacuation support system for efficient tsunami evacuation. This system can maintain to construct ad-hoc networks using home servers for smart homes in the case of an existing network disconnection. Moreover, we propose the detection method of impassable roads by other evacuees behavior for efficient tsunami evacuation guidance. We evaluate the proposed system by experiment.




Title: A New Approach for Executing Differential Calculus and Application to Failure Rate Analysis
Speaker: Dr. Masahiro Hayashi
We propose a new approach to executing differential calculus using simple 2 by 2 matrices and demonstrate an important application to the reliability engineering field. This matrix approach prevents an exponential increase in computation time of the post-expression obtained by differential calculus and shows instead a linear increase. This approach is a breakthrough for solving computation problems not only in the reliability engineering field but also in almost all science and engineering fields because differential calculus is essential to and commonly used in almost all of them.


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